Market Replay: Simulating Realistic Gaps
What if your Crude Oil futures backtest looks perfect on paper but fails the moment you trade live? The culprit is often how you handle Market Replay ga...
What if your Crude Oil futures backtest looks perfect on paper but fails the moment you trade live? The culprit is often how you handle Market Replay gaps, the invisible price jumps that occur when the market closes and reopens. Crude Oil (CL) futures are notorious for overnight moves that can span dozens of ticks in seconds. If your simulation ignores these gaps or fills them with unrealistic assumptions, your strategy's performance metrics are lying to you. You might see a 70% win rate in a test, only to watch your account bleed out when a gap stops you out before your stop-loss triggers. This article explores how to simulate these realistic gaps in NinjaTrader 8, ensuring your backtests reflect the chaotic reality of the energy markets. Gaps in Crude Oil futures are not just minor price adjustments; they are significant structural events that define risk. Unlike equities that might have circuit breakers or continuous trading, futures markets close for specific windows, allowing news from global events to accumulate. When the market reopens, price jumps to a new level, often bypassing your stop orders entirely.